I agree with anon 8:46am - he lost in round 1 to Ronnie, semi to Higgins and quarter to Perry and he should have won all 3 but lost his nerve when it really mattered. He'll never win it.
Very surprised at this choice, obviously wanting to make some further profits for Betfair. He had a golden opportunity last year with an easier draw only to lose to Joe Perry, a good player, but one that Maguire should be beating. He has done nothing this year to suggest he's a better or more mature player, quite the opposite in fact. The defence of his China crown doesn't inspire much confidence either. In my opinion he'll struggle first match and if he gets that far, get a good hiding from Ali Carter in the QF.
Interesting prediction Dave. I tipped Stephen Maguire to reach the final last year on this blog and lose against Marco Fu - so I really can't say a lot!
The one bet that stands out for me is the quarter betting, betting on a respective player to win his quarter and at 8/1 this morning with Corals on the newly crowned China Open champion Peter Ebdon to win quarter 1.
I appreciate that up to last week Ebdon really hasn't show any form all season and was in jeopardy of losing his place in the top 16 for next season. But, even if Ebdon doesn't produce his top form I can't see Nigel Bond causing him any problems in the first round and Ryan Day in the second has struggled since his run to the final of October's Grand Prix which a victory will set him up a quarter final with Ronnie O'Sullivan.
This is where I think the 8/1 on Ebdon is good value as we never know what O'Sullivan is going to turn up and we all know how much he hates playing Ebdon, especially at The Crucible. Rewind to the infamous quarter final of 2005 and the semi final back in 1996 when Ronnie had the chance to be the youngest World Champion.
One thing's for sure it's certainly going to make for interesting viewing.
Have to disagree with that last comment. If you think a player has a realistic chance of winning an event and he is 80-1, of course it is a good bet. If there were two players I really fancied, one was 80s the other was 5-1, it doesn't take a genius to work out which is the better bet.
And how can you say 80-1 is no more worth a punt than 5-1 unless you think he is going to win??? You wouldn't be putting the bet on in the first place if, surely? And anyway, an each-way bet on a runner-up 80-1 is far better than a bet on a winner at 5-1 should the stakes be the same anyway...
i cant explain it more clearly than i did in my post and i am not able to use my crayons on here to draw you a diagram, so will just need to leave it there. ;)
If Hendry goes to the Final and O'Sullivan is out, then he won,t pay more than even and you could sell for 40/1 at Bet Fair. That,s the beauty with Bet fair.
My original point was that 80/1 is an astonishing price seeing as we are talking about the greatest player who has ever lived who no matter how much he is struggling still has a chance in every tornament he takes part in.Thats why it's worth a punt.It wouldn't be worth it if he was 5/1.
Stephen Maguire has just recieved the news of your tip Dave
ReplyDeletehttp://d.yimg.com/i//ng/sp/eurosport/20090401/25/86333bbed88e0425e4dcbfdef08919e5.jpg
If you're anything like me as a tipster, that's just doomed Maguire to an early bath!!
ReplyDeleteJB will beat him in the first round.
ReplyDeleteyou heard it here first ;)
The nagging question: what if Maguire wins it, and then the betting inquiry finds him guilty?
ReplyDeletethey obviously go back and play all tournaments he has played in since that match
ReplyDeleteseriously what do you think would happen? (no answer needed!!)
Hey, mrs Watkins why did you ban me on GSC forum?and you blocked my IP.
ReplyDeleteafter 500 posts -without a single word of explanation?
http://wildhoney28.blogspot.com/
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised at your choice Dave. Has his Crucible bottles in the past not grabbed your attention? I don't think he'll ever win it.
ReplyDeleteI agree, i don't think he'll ever win it! and he is definitelly not going to get far this year, trust me!
ReplyDeleteI agree with anon 8:46am - he lost in round 1 to Ronnie, semi to Higgins and quarter to Perry and he should have won all 3 but lost his nerve when it really mattered. He'll never win it.
ReplyDeleteVery surprised at this choice, obviously wanting to make some further profits for Betfair. He had a golden opportunity last year with an easier draw only to lose to Joe Perry, a good player, but one that Maguire should be beating. He has done nothing this year to suggest he's a better or more mature player, quite the opposite in fact. The defence of his China crown doesn't inspire much confidence either. In my opinion he'll struggle first match and if he gets that far, get a good hiding from Ali Carter in the QF.
ReplyDeletehe will lose his first round match
ReplyDeleteInteresting prediction Dave. I tipped Stephen Maguire to reach the final last year on this blog and lose against Marco Fu - so I really can't say a lot!
ReplyDeleteThe one bet that stands out for me is the quarter betting, betting on a respective player to win his quarter and at 8/1 this morning with Corals on the newly crowned China Open champion Peter Ebdon to win quarter 1.
I appreciate that up to last week Ebdon really hasn't show any form all season and was in jeopardy of losing his place in the top 16 for next season. But, even if Ebdon doesn't produce his top form I can't see Nigel Bond causing him any problems in the first round and Ryan Day in the second has struggled since his run to the final of October's Grand Prix which a victory will set him up a quarter final with Ronnie O'Sullivan.
This is where I think the 8/1 on Ebdon is good value as we never know what O'Sullivan is going to turn up and we all know how much he hates playing Ebdon, especially at The Crucible. Rewind to the infamous quarter final of 2005 and the semi final back in 1996 when Ronnie had the chance to be the youngest World Champion.
One thing's for sure it's certainly going to make for interesting viewing.
Ryan
ryan. good point, though if you take the 8/1 and he gets bye those first two rounds youd be better selling your bet at 3/1 odds
ReplyDeleteStephen Hendry is 80/1 on betfair.Has to be worth a punt
ReplyDeleteno price is a good price unless you think it will "come in"
ReplyDeleteso 5/1 would be good if he won, though obviously 80 would be better
80/1 is no more worth a punt unless you think he is going to win (or betting each way) than 5/1 is as you need the bet up to collect
so, 80/1 isnt worth the punt because its a high number.....a loss of £10 at 80/1 is a £10 loss, the same as £10 at 5/1
Have to disagree with that last comment. If you think a player has a realistic chance of winning an event and he is 80-1, of course it is a good bet. If there were two players I really fancied, one was 80s the other was 5-1, it doesn't take a genius to work out which is the better bet.
ReplyDeleteAnd how can you say 80-1 is no more worth a punt than 5-1 unless you think he is going to win??? You wouldn't be putting the bet on in the first place if, surely? And anyway, an each-way bet on a runner-up 80-1 is far better than a bet on a winner at 5-1 should the stakes be the same anyway...
i cant explain it more clearly than i did in my post and i am not able to use my crayons on here to draw you a diagram, so will just need to leave it there. ;)
ReplyDeleteWill there be a betting thread on the forum?
ReplyDeleteIf Hendry goes to the Final and
ReplyDeleteO'Sullivan is out, then he won,t pay more than even and you could sell for 40/1 at Bet Fair.
That,s the beauty with Bet fair.
My original point was that 80/1 is an astonishing price seeing as we are talking about the greatest player who has ever lived who no matter how much he is struggling still has a chance in every tornament he takes part in.Thats why it's worth a punt.It wouldn't be worth it if he was 5/1.
ReplyDeleteno bet is worth a punt unless you think the person will win (or each way placed) as unless you think they will win youd just be throwing money away.
ReplyDeletewheres my crayon?
All this talk about Hendy winning has made me all warm and fuzzy.
ReplyDelete